It's not going to happen in 2010, but open source will eventually become a big player on the desktop/laptop/corneal implant/whatever people are using as their primary computer by then.
Why?
-Computing is stagnating so open source has an easier time keeping up with proprietary software than it used to. Gone are the days when your 18 month old 486 was hopelessly obsolete, or when there was a greatly enhanced version of (whatever) every year. Even Apple didn't exactly stun us with its latest OS upgrade.
-Computers are becoming cheaper so the price of the OS is becoming a larger fraction of the cost. The Windows 95 license on the first computer I bought for myself was a small fraction of the $2100 price tag. It's not as small of a fraction of the price of a $500 lower-middle end computer in 2010, especially when the middle class that can afford to waste $20-50, or whatever the Windows Tax is these days, is shrinking.
But - that doesn't necessarily mean LINUX on the whatevertop. Android or something that we haven't heard of yet may end up ovetaking it.
Anyway, Linux is pretty much ready. If somebody with some money and clout gets behind it, it'll become big. Who can say when/if that will happen?
Why?
-Computing is stagnating so open source has an easier time keeping up with proprietary software than it used to. Gone are the days when your 18 month old 486 was hopelessly obsolete, or when there was a greatly enhanced version of (whatever) every year. Even Apple didn't exactly stun us with its latest OS upgrade.
-Computers are becoming cheaper so the price of the OS is becoming a larger fraction of the cost. The Windows 95 license on the first computer I bought for myself was a small fraction of the $2100 price tag. It's not as small of a fraction of the price of a $500 lower-middle end computer in 2010, especially when the middle class that can afford to waste $20-50, or whatever the Windows Tax is these days, is shrinking.
But - that doesn't necessarily mean LINUX on the whatevertop. Android or something that we haven't heard of yet may end up ovetaking it.
Anyway, Linux is pretty much ready. If somebody with some money and clout gets behind it, it'll become big. Who can say when/if that will happen?