It's a strange and old fashioned industry, but also fairly flexible.
This seems more like a move for the airlines than a serious need outside of a few lanes. Generally speaking there isn't a lack of logistics capacity right now from what I've seen. Airlines have been in the logistics game for ages anyway. The amount they participate / effort ebs and flows at times, but they've always been there.
FWIW I was quoted $500 CAD to ship a hydraulic massage table from Vancouver to Toronto with WestJet Cargo a month ago (two packages: 30kg, 104×63×24cm; 27kg, 79×100×29cm)~. My sister brought the table the other way with the cheapest land-based courier she could find, I believe it was a trucking company, and paid ~$700 CAD.
By air it was easy to arrange, it's there a day later, and can wait in their warehouse for up to three days free of charge. By land, it took a week and was difficult to arrange.
We used to ship things by air to the caribbean via american airlines all the time. I have fond memories of a child going to EWR cargo docks and dropping off a 55lb drum to send to the islands.
Drums as containers makes perfect sense for smaller items yet I'd never heard of this form of transport for personal belongings. Thanks for the anecdote.
I was in Portsmouth. I attended Ross back when it was still there from 09-11. Love the island. Was planning to go back this year before covid. How about you?
From your comments it sounds like you referring to domestic planes which I have no doubt is true. There is definitely a capacity issue internationally - particularly between China and anywhere near to China and the USA
Is this an actual capacity issue or a case of 'China is big' though? Without knowing more context my instinct would be to assume that, all things being equal, China's population size simply allows it to generate demand at a much greater scale than America can generate supply.
Especially when, depending on your demographic, you're probably visiting America either for college, tourism, or birth tourism. None of these three situations are things that could easily be outsourced to Europe or bulk produced somewhere cheaper because they are largely cultural products of America.
Capacity from China and nearby countries to the USA is hard to get and very expensive right now. We are talking about cargo flights, not passenger ones.
Domestic demand in China doesn't affect chartered flights that only fly internationally.
I know what I'm talking about, I run a logistics in SE Asia - check out my profile :)
I have also been shipping hundreds of thousands of masks for the last 6 weeks to Universities, Government agencies, and other businesses and have seen the capacity change since America realized this was serious.
Some article I was reading (maybe even the same one) said that passenger airplanes normally transport substantial amounts of cargo, but due to the collapse in passenger traffic, it means the cargo capacity is shrinking below demand, hence they may be flying more passenger airplanes with only cargo.
>Generally speaking there isn't a lack of logistics capacity right now
How sure are you about that? In my large Texas city, grocery stores have been packed all day every day for like 2 weeks. How long can out country operate at such capacity before supply shortages start? Stores are already unable to keep shelves stocked.,.
Outside of some specific items I'm seeing grocery stores well stocked and quickly restocking (my visibility is not perfect here).
The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc.
But many 'non essential' or 'seeing less demand' warehouses are shutting down / not busy, and that frees up a lot to focus on other things. Also truck drivers are now allowed to exceed their usual maximum driving hours ... and they are moving fast traffic wise.
As far as truck drivers and etc I'm seeing warehouses isolate drivers where previously the driver was not isolated. They're providing them an isolated room and etc to limit contact between delivery point personnel or warehouses.
Logistics in the US is strange, surprisingly low tech sometimes, but also very flexible industry. Outside still fairly flexible as well.
>The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc
I'm counting on some disruption. Even during isolation these people are basically walking infection vectors because of the nature of their jobs - loading/unloading (touching and breathing on) goods carried across the country. And I doubt we currently have the PPE for them...
What percentage of meals were previously consumed outside the home, at workplaces, schools and daycares? Add all of those to the baseline grocery shopping rates pre-coronavirus, add on some anxiety factor, and you'll have the new baseline.
Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, now you have to use and buy your own. The in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled and shifted to retail.
Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't. The total demand for TP hasn't increased, it's just shifted. Once everyone has a stockpile at home, they won't buy it anymore.
Same with food. The restaurants were buying it and now consumers are instead. The demand is shifting but the level is the same.
Don't consumers have more food waste than restaurants? I believe I read something about that a while ago.
You're right for TP though. Imho that was simply a reaction to people understanding "you might have to be quarantined at home" as "you can't go out or get things delivered during that time, ever", and preparing adequately. Once they have their stash and/or realize that quarantined doesn't mean post-apocalyptic head-for-the-bunker, they'll relax and return to normal rates. It's important to quickly stock the shelves though, empty shelves make people nervous, and they'll overreact when they're nervous, buying more than they need ("the government and companies can't handle this situation, better stock up") and thus increase the problem.
There was also a "everyone else is stripping the shelves bare, I better get some" reaction. I've tried to avoid buying more than I think I genuinely need, but my idea of what I genuinely need definitively shifted when I saw I could not easily get relative essentials near me because other people were buying as much as they could possibly get.
I've stuck with a relatively conservative 2-3 week supply of noodles and rice, and the kind of toilet paper supply I'd normally buy anyway but where I'd previously be ok with waiting until I had a couple of rolls left before reordering. But that is mentally more effort than just panic-buying - I'm ok with 2-3 weeks because I've kept a close eye on supplies and know I can still top up, but if I'd just panic bought everything I could get my hands on I wouldn't have needed to put the effort into keeping track.
And even millions of people trying to be similarly restrained but accounting for the reality that others aren't still has a massive negative effect.
Overall I agree with you that it needs to bottom out soon, though. And I also very much agree about the psychological effect of keeping shelves look stocked.
> Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't.
office depot delivers TP with the copier paper and kleenex. IME that's been more common than costco for any business large enough to have an office manager.
Well,if people would only be buying to consume it.Ebay has pages and pages of listing of toilet paper now. How I hope we'll beat the virus sooner than all those bastards trying to sell it.
If we're talking hypotheticals without any data, there is an opposing possibility. Some people poop at work on purpose- I prefer to get paid while pooping instead of losing leisure time. I suppose it depends on how clean your work bathrooms are or your fear of public bathrooms. I know I'm not the only one pooping at work, I regularly see occupied stalls.
Ever notice how many animals poop wherever and whenever they need? Humans are one of the few species with a socially mediated pooping reflex--that is, the urge to defecate is attenuated when around other people. This attenuation is stronger for some people than others. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some are very nearly physically incapable of defecating in the presence of other people.
> Public latrines date back to the 2nd century BC. Whether intentionally or not, they became places to socialise. Long bench-like seats with keyhole-shaped openings cut in rows offered little privacy.
> When I lived in China, I had the experience of using many, many public restrooms which were basically just a big concrete trench in a room. Occasionally there would be small dividers but not always. So practically speaking, pooping would sometimes be quite the communal activity.
Yes, on the whole it's cultural as culture informs us as to what is public or private. And no doubt individual behaviors can change, though the degree to which they can readily change for any particular adult is the sticking point. Culture isn't the only dimension--the strength of the physiological response (which is rooted in genetics) undoubtedly varies. For all we know, maybe 10% of Romans were secretly midnight poopers and perplexed at how people could chat while doing their business.
Such covert behavior would naturally go unnoticed by others.
It's easier to point to young children as an example. The second link, for example, includes:
> I have a child who could not poo if someone was in the room or he was being watched, so a soon as he could move for privacy, he did. ... Many other kids will at least need to avert their eyes and at least pretend they have some semblance of privacy. Others will let go while grinning at you.
FWIW, my 3-year-old son loves to watch me poop, and will run into the bathroom when I need to go. And I let him, and don't find it difficult to poop.
I do have a hard time getting a sense for how much is "rooted in genetics" beyond the simple fact that we are living creatures.
Some people are scared of flying. Others are not. This cannot be a direct result of genetic selection, for obvious reasons.
Some children love certain foods, while a sibling does not. This too cannot be explained by simple genetics.
So given examples like the Romans, and Chinese and (again from the second link) "About a billion people -- 15% of the world's population -- practise open defecation" and "In the Samoan house there are no walls... the beaches are used openly as latrines." - how meaningful is it to say it's 'rooted in genetics', any more than we can say that at some level English is rooted in genetics?
Dogs seem to be super picky about where exactly they’ll poop. Ours when he has to go will only go in the nearby park (not on the sidewalk or the street on the way there). And then he sniffs around for five minutes or so before finding the perfect spot. I think his social cues are largely about smell.
Define privacy. American-style stalls don't permit very much privacy, though in any event "private" is in the mind of the person. That's what makes it interesting--a person's feeling of privacy mediates a very basic physiological function.
Wow! Talk about an open office!
But as anecdata my wife avoids pooping at work or at public toilets, so saves it up for home, whereas I will just go if I need to and there is a non-disgusting toilet available.
>The base in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled.
And the base work, day care, and restaurant usage has plummeted. That's the thing about logistics and supply, a person can only use so much toilet paper for example. Once you've delivered 4 or 5 times the supply necessary for the population of a city, you're wasting effort. There is a distribution problem in that supply node, not really a logistics problem with the system.
We have distribution inefficiencies in many of our "supply nodes", no question. But these are not inefficiencies that airlines, or even traditional freight companies, can solve.
I did think about this. There probably is some adjustment that needs to happen with the supply chains, but to some degree it's just changing the endpoints a little bit.
Restaurants buy their food also. There should be some decrease in restaurant supplies, although I suspect the prepared food has much more water content.
I'm not sure anyone is tracking this in an accessible way, but school meals almost everywhere are likely still available. Schools have large minimum orders sizes and federal/state funding is tied around providing food, so they're highly incentivized to figure out how to distribute it in order to get the cashflow to pay off those contractual obligations.
California has one of the stricter shelter-in-place orders and everything connected to food supply, including prepared food, is essential. Restaurants are delivery/takeout only, but still operating.
Now, it's probably true that on average the share of food consumed from restaurants has dropped, but the sector isn't closed down.
I'd imagine though that people are still eating roughly the same amount of food, so if restaurant sales have dropped then grocery store sales must have gone up (which I guess they did given the hoarding).
Who uses industrial/commercial toilet paper in their homes? The factories can stop creating more but the existing supply is locked in large rolls most people don't use in their homes. Even not in large rolls it's not as nice as most toilet paper people use in their houses.
I do. Rolls last longer. The paper doesn't shred so readily. You need more sheets, but less total mass. You can wipe mirrors and sinks without leaving paper residue behind.
The work toilet paper is more likely to be 1-ply recycled toilet paper in large rolls than what people would buy for a home. The factories that produce commercial TP may not be able to convert to the preferred residential products quickly.
The average person needs 7 gallons of water, 28 cans of meat, and 14 cans of fruit per 2 weeks. For a month long stockpile that comes out to 21 gallons of water, 84 cans of protein, and 42 cans of fruit. However everyone is probably stocking up on bananas and potatoes and fresh meats which will start to go bad after a week.
Logistics has a built in circuit breaker. Whether you're talking about military use cases or civilian use cases. At some point, you will just have too much on the ground. No more will fit. At that point, it's a question of distributing the oversupply of what's already there in a fashion appropriate to the purpose of the day.
Grocery stores are satisfied almost entirely by domestic freight carriers (this could be said to be one of the definitions of a grocery store); in non-expedited domestic shipping, rail+truck are far-and-away the lowest-overhead carriers, with air not even entering the picture. Air (and sea) are for international and/or expedited freight, neither of which matter to shipping cabbages or cereal.
If grocery stores sell faster, and so requested more resupply, you'd just see more 18-wheelers on the road and more freight-trains passing through. Neither "infrastructure" of which is operated anywhere near its capacity.
I mean...there's a limit somewhere, isn't there? I'm not expecting grocery store supply chains to maintain 2x raw supplies reserved and manufacturing capacity...at the very least with the economy in the tank some of these factories that feed stores are going to shut down...
And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. Unless you mean to say we throw away half of the harvest under normal conditions.
Having the economy in the tank doesn’t shut down factories directly, it does it indirectly, e.g. by drying up demand. Demand for groceries is up. Food demand is relatively inelastic. What changes is which food has demand.
The supply chain for food is complicated, to say the least, but one of the things about food is that we’ve been working on extending shelf life for the past hundred years, and transport food globally, and it really shows. You can buy apples at the supermarket right now, even though they went out of season in October. If you had to think for a moment about when “in season” is for apples, well, the reason why you had to pause and think is because the modern supply chain gives you apples year round. The only way it can do that is by having a massive stockpile of shelf-stable apples which are sourced from both hemispheres.
As a matter of details, people aren’t really eating more or less, we’re just getting different foods through different channels, and the long & complicated supply chain takes a while to switch over. I just want to emphasize again that the supply chain is a real beast. Because of the nature of the beast, it has to have excess capacity, because it is just so damn inefficient.
> And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying.
There’s enough slack in the supply chain to absorb panic buying, if you wait it out. Anecdotally, panic buying is drying up in NYC and we’re getting closer to steady state.
Totally an anecdote, but grocery stores in Austin, TX are much better stocked than they were a week ago.
There's only so much over-buying the average household can do before the pantry is totally full. Give it another week or two and things will be much better.
A “grocery store” that you’d just call that is defined by a partnership with one or a number of domestic distributors.
There’s a different type of store (without a coherent name—it’s usually either “[country] import store” or “[culture] food market”) which is defined by a partnership with a specific import business (where that importer is in turn defined by their relationship to an export business in a specific country—though they may be re-exporting goods that were already imported there from elsewhere!) The supply chain for these companies is constrained by the logistics of international shipping, which means it’s more profitable to just specialize in one particular 1:1:1 logistical pipeline, rather than many.
The remote Alaskan grocery stores are really the latter type of store. They’re US import stores! (And a real “grocery store” in such a part of the would would just sell, like, seal meat. And maybe hydroponic hot-house vegetables, if they ever bother doing that.)
It's a strange and old fashioned industry, but also fairly flexible.
This seems more like a move for the airlines than a serious need outside of a few lanes. Generally speaking there isn't a lack of logistics capacity right now from what I've seen. Airlines have been in the logistics game for ages anyway. The amount they participate / effort ebs and flows at times, but they've always been there.