"none of it sounds that hard, and yet in the 15 years since, it hasn’t been close to replicated."
^ That right there is the definition of luck and timing. If it's not that hard, tons have tried, and nobody has replicated, then luck and/or timing must have been a huge factor. This doesn't seem to cross Sam's mind.
That doesn't seem obvious to me. It could be that it is actually hard despite not sounding hard.
Certainly not implying that luck and timing didn't play a huge role, but I think there's often subtle unspoken but super important factors at play in these kinds of things.
It could be, but this is Occam's razor stuff. It doesn't sound hard, nobody knows what the factors are. Other people have tried it, they have not succeeded. Sama doesn't know what the other people look like. You'd have to prove that it's not luck by repeating it.
I guess I don't really agree that it doesn't sound hard. Like, at some point I might have thought it didn't sound hard, but I've come to view good leadership as much more important, subtler, and rarer than I once did.
^ That right there is the definition of luck and timing. If it's not that hard, tons have tried, and nobody has replicated, then luck and/or timing must have been a huge factor. This doesn't seem to cross Sam's mind.