The car FSD - aircraft autopilot analogy is deeply flawed, and nowhere near instructive. Let's consider some details:
What aircraft autopilot does is following a pre-planned route to the T, with any changes being input by humans. The aircraft autopilot doesn't do its own detection of obstacles, nor of router markings; it follows the flight plan and reacts to conditions of the aircraft. Even when executing automatic take-off and landing, the autopilot doesn't try to detect other vehicles or obstacles - just executes the plan, safe in knowledge that there are humans actively monitoring for safety. There is always at least two humans in the loop: the pilot in command who prepared and inputed the original flight plan and also inputs any route changes when needed (collision and weather avoidance), and an air traffic controller that continuously observes flight paths of several aircrafts and is responsible for ensuring safe separation between aircraft in his zone of responsibility. Beyond that, an ATController has equal influence on all aricraft in his zone of responsibility, and in case one does something unexpected, it can equally well redirect that one or any other one in vicinity. Lastly, due to much less dense traffic, the separation between aircraft is significantly larger than between cars [1] providing time for pilots to perform evasive maneuvers - and that's in 3d space, where there are effectively two axes to evade along.
Conversely with car FSD - the system is tasked both with following the route, and also with continuously updating the route according to markings, traffic, obstacles, and any contingencies encountered. This is a significant difference in quantity from the above - the law and the technology demands one human in the loop, and that human can only really influence his own car at most. Even worse, due to density of traffic, the separation between cars is quite often on the order of seconds of travel time, making hand-over to driver a much more rapid process.
I am moderately hopeful for FSD "getting there" eventually, but at the same time I'm wary of narrative making unwarranted parallels between FSD and aircraft autopilot.
What aircraft autopilot does is following a pre-planned route to the T, with any changes being input by humans. The aircraft autopilot doesn't do its own detection of obstacles, nor of router markings; it follows the flight plan and reacts to conditions of the aircraft. Even when executing automatic take-off and landing, the autopilot doesn't try to detect other vehicles or obstacles - just executes the plan, safe in knowledge that there are humans actively monitoring for safety. There is always at least two humans in the loop: the pilot in command who prepared and inputed the original flight plan and also inputs any route changes when needed (collision and weather avoidance), and an air traffic controller that continuously observes flight paths of several aircrafts and is responsible for ensuring safe separation between aircraft in his zone of responsibility. Beyond that, an ATController has equal influence on all aricraft in his zone of responsibility, and in case one does something unexpected, it can equally well redirect that one or any other one in vicinity. Lastly, due to much less dense traffic, the separation between aircraft is significantly larger than between cars [1] providing time for pilots to perform evasive maneuvers - and that's in 3d space, where there are effectively two axes to evade along.
Conversely with car FSD - the system is tasked both with following the route, and also with continuously updating the route according to markings, traffic, obstacles, and any contingencies encountered. This is a significant difference in quantity from the above - the law and the technology demands one human in the loop, and that human can only really influence his own car at most. Even worse, due to density of traffic, the separation between cars is quite often on the order of seconds of travel time, making hand-over to driver a much more rapid process.
I am moderately hopeful for FSD "getting there" eventually, but at the same time I'm wary of narrative making unwarranted parallels between FSD and aircraft autopilot.
[1] https://www.airservicesaustralia.com/about-us/our-services/h...