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That math is my favorite example of economists not living in the real world. It doesn’t account for the ability to refinance.


It does, in fact. The bank prices that into the loan.


Huh? First, the bank can’t possibly price future interest rates into the price of a fixed loan as they’re by definition unknown. Second, we’re talking about the economic model of which is better for consumers. It assumes no refinancing to lower your interest rate down the road, which is a pretty big caveat.


> by definition unknown

They're a known-unknown. Well-defined risk can be priced in. Black swans / unknown-unknowns can't.


Known in the sense that they know it’s possible, sure. Known in the sense that they know what the likelihood of any given rate increase is over 15-30 years (and are therefore capable of pricing it in)? No.

“Priced in” has a very specific meaning, it’s not a generic term for being aware that something might happen.


The derivatives market for hedging interest rate risk is fairly liquid. They can add the cost of an appropriate hedge (according to their risk appetite) into the price of the loan.




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