I disagree that 3D printers are the new 2D printers and everyone will eventually have one. Lets think about 3d printing in the context of the rise of 2d printers.
Was the thing that held back personal printers the lack of things to print- at one point, likely. Did a massive influx of 3rd party things to print solve this problem? No. 2D printers were popularized because people had shit they needed to print- text documents to start with and later photos. They made these things themselves. Thingiverse was not the solution for 2d and won't be the solution for 3d.
The only reason Thingiverse gets mentioned is that its damn near impossible for anyone who isn't a specialist in the field to design anything printable. The software is too complex and physical items must be durable.
This say we solved the software problem. We still have the enormous problem that the vast majority of people are incapable of making cogent 3D designs. IE, customization isn't buying you anything other than the ability to emboss your name or make a slightly different iphone case. Really, name one item that the average Joe can customize that isn't kitsch. Here's my list: glasses and jewelery (and only the later with quite a bit of hand holding). You may name a few more, but they problem have integrated circuits or other components that are not printable (lenses, diamonds, etc).
Maybe 3D printers will one day be valuable for printing out replacement parts; perhaps this is true. You'll take your broken whatsit to get 3D scanned and replaced. But of course, this business model may never come into existence due to copyright/patent laws. Even here, you will most likely get this done at your local kinkos because they will do it better, faster, and cheaper.
I don't foresee personal 3d printers becoming a thing, if ever. Perhaps in 20 years I'll look back on this statement in the same way that I think about "why would anyone ever want a personal computer". We'll see.
Was the thing that held back personal printers the lack of things to print- at one point, likely. Did a massive influx of 3rd party things to print solve this problem? No. 2D printers were popularized because people had shit they needed to print- text documents to start with and later photos. They made these things themselves. Thingiverse was not the solution for 2d and won't be the solution for 3d.
The only reason Thingiverse gets mentioned is that its damn near impossible for anyone who isn't a specialist in the field to design anything printable. The software is too complex and physical items must be durable.
This say we solved the software problem. We still have the enormous problem that the vast majority of people are incapable of making cogent 3D designs. IE, customization isn't buying you anything other than the ability to emboss your name or make a slightly different iphone case. Really, name one item that the average Joe can customize that isn't kitsch. Here's my list: glasses and jewelery (and only the later with quite a bit of hand holding). You may name a few more, but they problem have integrated circuits or other components that are not printable (lenses, diamonds, etc).
Maybe 3D printers will one day be valuable for printing out replacement parts; perhaps this is true. You'll take your broken whatsit to get 3D scanned and replaced. But of course, this business model may never come into existence due to copyright/patent laws. Even here, you will most likely get this done at your local kinkos because they will do it better, faster, and cheaper.
I don't foresee personal 3d printers becoming a thing, if ever. Perhaps in 20 years I'll look back on this statement in the same way that I think about "why would anyone ever want a personal computer". We'll see.