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This is true for many things.

In a marketing class long ago the professor asked what % of the US beer industry was imported. The answers were all over the place, with most answers between 30 and 50%. She responded with, "It's less than 10%, and this is why you have to look at the #s rather than intuition even if you're a consumer of the product yourself."

Technical complexity and fancy features aren't what helps crack the bottom of the market, which is the heart of disruptive innovation. "Because it's cool and I like it" may have worked for Steve Jobs, but he's the exception and not the rule.



> In a marketing class long ago the professor asked what % of the US beer industry was imported. The answers were all over the place, with most answers between 30 and 50%. She responded with, "It's less than 10%, and this is why you have to look at the #s rather than intuition even if you're a consumer of the product yourself."

You'd just have to take a look at what brands sell the most in the US to get an approximate answer. I'm not American so I can say for certain, but except for the yuppie preference for microbrews, most Americans stick to domestic light beers — Budweiser, Coors, Miller.

Per the essay, I'm not normal and most people don't really know the companies that make the products they consume, but estimating 50% of the US beer industry to be imported is something fairly inadequate for someone in college taking a marketing class.

Maybe the german-sounding Budweiser/Anheuser-Busch threw them off, but I'd guess most college students either drink (legally or not) or see people drinking, and could make a better estimate.


This was before the craft brew revolution. I think so many folks drank Corona, Heinekin and Molson that they assumed everyone else did. But the power drinkers (multiple pitchers a night) go with Busch, Bud and Miller High Life.

The general point of overconfidence is very true.


> Technical complexity and fancy features aren't what helps crack the bottom of the market, which is the heart of disruptive innovation. "Because it's cool and I like it" may have worked for Steve Jobs, but he's the exception and not the rule.

I don't get that one. One could argue Apple does exactly the opposite of that. Technical complexity is usually hidden and there are less fancy features than competitor's products. Compare the first iPod vs. any MP3 on the market at the time.


Right - everything you said is true. I'm highlighting that Jobs as the exception. :-)




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