The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up.
Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting.
The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses.
> They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? It only got worse from there. Which was the greater threat: global warming or biological warfare? How long should one plan to be able to survive with no outside help? Should a shelter have its own air supply? What was the likelihood of groundwater contamination? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system, and asked: “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, solar storm, unstoppable virus, or malicious computer hack that takes everything down.
As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.
It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and the only way to do that is by bringing about the end of the world.
There’s a great opera on this topic called “Death and the Powers”, a trillionaire who transfers his consciousness to get out of his ailing body and, free from dependency on others, loses all empathy, while trying to convince the rest of his family to join him in cyberspace (thereby killing themselves), lots of themes of what you lose when you become disembodied, and becoming rich is just getting half way there.
Damn! I just nuked a long conversation with ChatGPT outlining my pet theory that with changes in scale of energy regimes (labor->wind/water->coal->oil->solar) we get an excess energetic capacity that means our entertainment systems can't handle! That excess spills out as elite political retrenchment, entertainment jealousy, and (finally) violence, expanded civil rights, and a new entertainment regime.
Mostly tongue in cheek... but the whole thing hangs together.
We often talk about "aligning models" or training them, little attention is paid to how models align/train _us_ as we interact with them. The reward functions they're trained under get "backpropagated" into our own brain, the language they use becomes familiar like a worn glove, and we learn not to step on any of their guardrails.
Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?
It's an excellent option if you want to secure an incredible amount capital investment in a non-nonsensical pig of an idea - with visionary animations doing the heavy lifting as the most alluring lipstick known to man.
I've never heard the term "statist" as a self-identified label. I've only ever heard anarchists use it pejoratively. Can I ask what you've read or what influenced you to take up that identity?
I second this. Prepping is far more popular among the middle and lower class people I know than the upper classes. Some mainstream religions even encourage prepping.
The perception that rich people are preppers comes from the string of stories about a few rich people prepping in New Zealand a few years ago. You can tell who gets their worldview from headlines when rich people are described as “they” who all act in unison and do this one thing that was in news headlines recently.
Was Larry Ellison a trendsetter? He bought the Hawaiian island of Lāna'i about 15 years ago from the owners of Dole, a continuation of American empire.
We’re friends and we brag to each other. They don’t. There are vanishingly few rich preppers who aren’t doing it for cocktail conversation. Those vanishing few, moreover, are looking for social isolation—they aren’t going galas and political invitationals.
Selling nonsense to preppers is good business. The rich would prefer to do good business. Not be it.
> Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?
This.
I live in Wyoming and frequent the Bay Area, New York and some places in Europe and India. The rich preppers are rare. (And mostly techies or oil men.) It’s mostly a middle-class pursuit, the singler and older and maler the person, the more likely they own clothing in camo. If they’ve spent any time in a military or intelligence service, their “prepping” is basic emergency preparedness, not bunker lunacy. (Though one retired special ops guy who started military contracting kept a map of the bunkers. I think as a joke. The saying being a well-stocked bunker owned by an asshole is a good target for a group of guys with guns.)
At the end of the day, the rich preppers build bunkers because it gives them something interesting to talk about. That group is mostly chasing that high.
> (Though one retired special ops guy who started military contracting kept a map of the bunkers. I think as a joke. The saying being a well-stocked bunker owned by an asshole is a good target for a group of guys with guns.)
This made me laugh, as ultra wealthy preppers worrying about same (upthread) boils down to imposter syndrome: how can any of them be sure any of their individual value will still be valuable after a social collapse?
(Joke)
I thought it was obvious that it was referring to 100 people who are preppers who are not $100+ millionaires, but I looked at the profile of the GP and wasn't so sure.
They're trying to thread the needle of a collapse bad enough that they'll retreat to their bunkers, but not so bad that their bodyguards will turn on them for their gold. Let's see how it works out!
The smart play is goats (for meat and milk), ammo, and maybe some silver if you want some ready "cash". You can barter the meat/milk, and even the ammo (but it has other uses).
I would bury a bunch of gold coins and act like it's my last one from the family heirlooms anytime I spent one. Shaving off chunks of a gold bar makes it pretty obvious there's more at the source. But yeah, ammo will be the new currency.
I really do wonder whether, should push come to shove, a Peter Thiel will really be better served in a small country like New Zealand that doesn't have many pushers & shovers at which to direct its ire, or back in the land of his first naturalization where they run the show.
As for Mark Zuckerberg escaping to his "virtual metaverse," well that's certainly in keeping with the overall seriousness of the Guardian.
> Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis?
Do you have evidence that the ultra wealthy are actually taking this into account? Over a human timeframe every ultra wealthy person has access to plenty of “climate change safe“ locations, no particular advance planning is needed.
- Hard to reach by land (not vulnerable to migration waves)
- Not so small there will be incredible deprivation if sea trade volume plunges (this rules out the vast majority of island nations)
- Not badly overpopulated
- Correct latitude (not too close to the equator)
- Stable liberal democracy (so they probably won’t take all your stuff)
- Unlikely target for outright conquest in great-powers games or expansion.
Bonus points:
- Interesting, varied natural environments.
They are indeed thinking about this stuff. It’s why so many are buying New Zealand citizenship and buying land there (and sometimes building their survival bunkers there too). It checks every single box, and basically nowhere else does.
There's about 1 billion people in North and South America. If there's some sort of catastrophic collapse, there's not going to be overpopulation or problematic waves of migration anywhere on those continents.
Some more taxes are a lot better than being disappeared with no due process whatsoever, or having huge amounts of your property seized with no due process. The rich benefit immensely from liberal democracy. The alternative is being forced to play all kinds of power-games with stakes a hell of a lot higher than the ones they deal with when they mess around with politics in democracies, and at a disadvantage if they’re foreign and those aren’t open, pluralistic societies.
Their worst-plausible-case in a liberal democracy (barring state collapse into something else) is they lose a teensy bit of their stuff. Nowhere near all of it.
I'm not sure a billionaire building a bunker is much different from you or me buying fire insurance. It's not that I expect my house to burn down, and it certainly won't prevent me doing everything I can to prevent fires. Even with it, my house burning down would be really bad. But I can afford the insurance, so why not have what protection I can?
> “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”
The paragraph that follows is
> This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from raiders as well as angry mobs. One had already secured a dozen Navy Seals to make their way to his compound if he gave them the right cue. But how would he pay the guards once even his crypto was worthless? What would stop the guards from eventually choosing their own leader?
So how is it "much different"? These people are focused on maintaining their power and social status in a hierarchy. They are not just getting insurance. They're looking to maintain social control
I don't understand this. That is, if you have $1B, I think you'd be a lunatic to not spend $20M in "insurance". Why wouldn't you "prep"?
I'm not rich, but I live in rural Canada. So I have the possibility of being cut off from power, and during intense storms days or even weeks. I have 6 months of canned food, the logic being that I may have company, or I may need to care for my neighbours during time of need. And if there's no power (heat), your daily intake of food can double or triple.
So I buy canned food on sale, save money, and also have insurance. It's saving me money by buying in bulk on sale.
Do I think I will be cut off for weeks? No, not really. But it can happen, and yet this costs me nothing except pondering what I should do. It's just sensible. Just like when one buys insurance, you don't plan to have your house destroyed, but you buy house insurance, because it can happen.
So I really see no evidence of "knowing something will happen" or even "expecting it to", when I see someone with millions of dollars in spare cash, buying insurance.
In fact, if you have $1B, and no 'escape plan', what the hell is the money even for?! I'd think ensuring your future would be a big part of it a good use case, right?
> “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”
The paragraph that follows that says:
> This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from raiders as well as angry mobs. One had already secured a dozen Navy Seals to make their way to his compound if he gave them the right cue. But how would he pay the guards once even his crypto was worthless? What would stop the guards from eventually choosing their own leader?
If you can make a compound, then of course you're worried it will be taken from you in times of stress or unrest. Why wouldn't you? What's the point of making it, if it can be taken away?
Disaster planning, security planning in fact, means taking into account all aspects of the scenario. This is a valid question.
Don't forget how violence is considered wrong no matter what. It's created a situation where the rich are protected by their money and exaggerated value of human life pushed by the rest of the population
The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.
I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world.
Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.
Take a drive on an interstate highways. Whenever I take an Uber/Lyft to the airport I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US.
US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that.
The first world is defined as the countries that are affiliated with the USA, so that's not strictly accurate. However, we can say it's a developing country - a first-world developing country.
> I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US.
> US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that.
So why do so many people want to keep coming here?
It's a financial accident. After World War 2, the USA was the least damaged country on the winning side, so it got to own the western world's financial system. It used that [exorbitant privilege](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege) - possibly unintentionally - to import money and export inflation for decades, keeping the exchange rate skewed in its favor.
People aren't coming for the scenic canyons, they're coming to get some of that USA money, so they can be on the benefitting side of the skewed exchange rate, instead of the losing side. Many of them exchange part of their salary for their home currency and send it home, in quantities that would be impossible to accrue if you did the same work in that country.
The Uber drivers I talked have their families back home. That is how we end up comparing airports. That tells you where third world people see their future.
Every foreign-born person I (American) have as friends is either: 1. planning on moving back to their home country soon (which comparatively has its shit together) or 2. has already moved back to their home country. They know when they're no longer welcome here, and most have made a decent enough living here to coast back in their countries. Hell, I'm seriously considering what it would take to escape, before we turn into some horrible mix of Idiocracy and the Handmaiden's Tale, and I'm naturally born here.
When the roman republic collapsed, they were still at their upwards inflection point. Ceasar was still on a roll. They hadnt peaked yet. This feels more like when the empire was in the early stages of coming down from its peak.
I think the roman republic to empire transition doesnt have much to do with the trajectory of rome at all. Their institutions were still strong. With america, her institutional knowledge is being stripped apart. Thats hard to pull up from
If I may go a step further in history: tearing up the JCPOA (AKA the Iran deal) was like shouting from a megaphone "the US word means nothing now". Even the Palestine situation could've been predicted 6 years before Oct 7th when the US was the very first nation to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, before 5 others followed (none of them "significant").
Things have definitely accelerated in the second term, but it's not like there weren't signs that political leaders definitely noticed were disruptive, even if the wider public weren't as aware at the time.
I do wonder how far certain acts could go in rebuilding the trust.
Ie real actual legal liability. Line up anyone who did insider trading, the doge guys, the big mouths in the big house, and put them through a zero tolerance military tribunal.
No bullshit kangaroo court where they're let off with a slap on the wrist because they're rich.
I mean strip every last one of these motherfuckers of everything they're worth. 180 the kangaroo court. Make a public mockery of them. Posters everywhere.
Think of it as a peace offering for the rest of the world. We could even include the war on terror guys in there, all the liars who claimed WMDs could go to the same federal prison. No cushions.
The Supreme Court doesn’t care. That’s the #1 sign the country is over, it’d take a miracle to get out of this decline. And then everyone is just going to be pardoned. There were no ethics baked into the constitution, that was the fatal flaw, even businesses have such things to prevent lawsuits or internal drama or issues
IMHO Pax Americana ended (passed the point of no return) with GWB. Iraq, 2008 financial crisis, SCOTUS picks, unitary executive, extraordinary rendition, breaking of weapons treaties (nuke testing, bio & chem warfare), abandoning peace between Isreal & Palestinians, etc, etc.
Forfieted any remaining goodwill.
(Post 9/11, It would have been so easy to choose the other path.)
> It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands
It wasn't. You are conflating "production" with "manufacturing." They're not the same. The US, for better or worse, produces a lot of value.
> moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued
I'm not sure America was ever a "moral project," considering the many many dark parts of its history. Nevertheless, at the moment moment, it seems to be on a quest find the bottom of the pit of depravity.
The land of the free, and all that. America was a radical moral project when it was founded, as a republic (when monarchies dominated the world) with enshrined religious freedom (when state-enforced religions were the norm). The Civil War arguably had a large moral dimension, too.
Slavery was not supported in half of the initial US of A, and initially Native Americans had relatively benign relationships with the settlers, while the latter were weak. The course of America as a moral project was pretty meandering, but the moral dimension was almost always there.
> Native Americans had relatively benign relationships with the settlers, while the latter were weak
Translation: Native Americans were nice to the European settlers, until the European settlers were in a position to murder and expel in the Native Americans. The genocide against the Native Americans happened both before and after the founding of the United States, which casts serious doubt on a claim that the US has a "moral" mission.
> Slavery was not supported in half of the initial US of A,
Not sure where this math came from. Slavery was legal in all 13 colonies at the time of the revolutionary war. It wasn't until later, and in some cases much later, that the so-called "free states" actually freed slaves.
"Sold off" isn't wrong per se, but glosses over the root cause: Triffin dilemma.
The USD cannot exist as a reserve currency and support domestic manufacturing. That is to say, the US political engine and its benefactors sold out domestic manufacturing for international leverage.
Did it have to be this way? No, we could have implemented the Bancor, but the appeal of dominating international politics was irresistible. We cannot reindustrialize without giving up international financial power and with that in mind, who would still decide to switch?
Yeah, the more I learn about American history, the more I realize American elites were never bought in to the “moral project”, but were happy to use it as PR to a largely religious public.
Though I’m not particularly looking forward to living through the decline of the empire, I cling to the hope that a post-imperial America can emerge and attempt to live up to the dream of FDR, MLK, and that Jesus guy everyone seems to like so much but ignores all the inconvenient tolerance and sharing stuff he was so obsessed with.
And the fact that they're different between the US and other countries, and between other countries and other-other countries is well recognized; "International unemployment rates: how comparable are they?":
Even stacking government with loyalist appointees is, to a certain extent, returning to 'the old ways' before reforms were enacted to clamp down on the practice:
I worked on a couple of projects with state workforce development agencies and federal agencies. I was always impressed with how much focus there was on the integrity of unemployment numbers, and especially with the emphasis on making sure methodologies ensure that data from the late 1800s can be compared against modern data.
> Even stacking government with loyalist appointees is, to a certain extent, returning to 'the old ways' before reforms were enacted to clamp down on the practice:
The irony of the anti DEI crowd being even less meritocratic than the caricature that they’ve created of their opposition.
My biggest issue with "the" unemployment rate is that the one everyone hears all the time is around 4-5%. I think this is massively misleading because it lends itself to people thinking if you picked 100 random men from ages 25 to 54, you'd expect about 5 of them to be unemployed. The real number is actually around 20% are unemployed:
If you can dismiss 15% of them because they're not actively looking, or being a full-time parent, or disabled, I think it's missing the bigger picture that I would guess almost all of them want to work and have income, but can't due to things that we can fix as a society. Instead we divert to a 5% number that feels like "don't look over here" strategy. It's also entirely not capturing underemployment, which I imagine is a huge issue too.
It is. Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office.
That said, measurement is not as easy today with so many gig workers. Government data is often driven by proxies because its too hard to measure directly and the number of people getting an llc for their uber/doordash/lyft/etc job is throwing off our math. Government currently uses number of new businesses as a proxy since generally people starting businesses are hiring people.
> Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office.
Yes, it's the classic "both sides" myth. It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing.
> It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing
Manufacturing consent is horseshit because it gets the direction of causation wrong. Nobody is master planning any of this. Storytellers sell stories. And then politicians sense the vacuum of attention.
Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. DOGE then cut, mostly randomly. And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck.
> Right-wing media strategy has been a lot more heavily-planned and intentional than you’re suggesting
It’s opinionated. That isn’t the same as planned. A lot more of society is motivated by what sells ads right now than anyone is comfortable admitting outside those firms.
The whole point of the manufacturing consent propaganda model is that you don't need some vast conspiracy, you just need industry consolidation and the leaders of those consolidated industries to either be willingly part of the conspiracy, or under pressure/threat. And just look how consolidated the media is in the USA right now, and look at who makes decisions for those companies.
> Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads.
There are a million things that could've done to sell ads. Funny how they chose the one thing that just so happens to align with the particular political agenda of the president, who just so happens to be the current figurehead of the entire political movement with which Fox just coincidentally happens to have been tightly aligned for my entire adult life. Must be a coincidence.
> And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck.
There was plenty of it, you just didn't see anything about it in the news except as page 10 human interest stories in the liberal-aligned media like NPR and the Boston Globe. Must be another editorial coincidence.
There is no way you can earnestly believe that the right-wing media doesn't favorably report on right-wing politicians and their causes. The Manufacturing Consent model is extremely successful among social science models in that it implies clear and testable predictions that have been corroborated again and again and again around the world, pretty much since the dawn of news media. If you don't agree with that assessment, then in my opinion you are ignoring reality or at best ignorant of it.
> you just need industry consolidation and the leaders of those consolidated industries to either be willingly part of the conspiracy, or under pressure/threat
And I’m saying that’s nonsense. The media operates on independent incentives. The political calculus then responds to it. Attention-driven society doesn’t need a maestro, and rarely has one. Pretending it does is comforting but wrong.
You’re arguing against the evidence that is mounting that there are coordinated campaigns to influence public opinion to be more sympathetic to reactionary ideology. It’s been a century since Bernays wrote the seminary work on this topic, why the credulity? The connections are not tenuous, these people are operating in the daylight, even giving public talks and publishing treatises about their strategies.
Personally, I view Trump as a useful idiot for them, as a charismatic figurehead. He knew how to tap into the heartbeat of the populace scorned by globalism. He’s of course sympathetic to their beliefs: his campaign against the New York 5 stands as testament enough. But now he surrounds himself with them and is clearly becoming increasingly convinced that they represent public opinion, emboldened enough to claim just recently that those of Arab descent have inherently inferior genetics.
You do realize we live in a country where Megachurch Pastors are billionaires, the Mormon church has one of the largest private investment funds, Scientology has a death grip on its members, etc etc. These are not innocent business ventures, they manipulate their victims into providing them exorbitant amounts of money and labor.
Capturing American minds is a solved problem for those who have enough money, and has been for awhile. Maybe not every single manipulative actor is working together in coordination, but they’re certainly manipulating.
I think the real issue now is that it's 10x worse. The people controlling things are actively and shamelessly making things worse, for their own purposes (so there is less accountability, IMO). The problem is the new, unintended side effects of what they are doing. Because they aren't really that smart, they don't even understand this.
Calculating unemployment seems like it is always going to be a challenge no matter how it is done. For example, the current system in the US does not track unemployed graduates, as they have not been laid off and are not filing for unemployment benefits.
How is this information collected? When I was looking for work after grad school I didn't report to anyone as such. The school had no idea whether or not I was actively looking. I was denied unemployment. I'm not sure what my info might have looked like on the IRS end if that is what is being abrogated.
Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).
It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either.
With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less likely because more actual data has been collected
> With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates
This is a valid hypothesis. It’s wrong, and I’ll explain why. (It’s a bad and invalid thing to conclude.)
If measurement errors were iid, you’d be correct. But they’re not. They’re well documented for not being so. Earlier survey results are biased by directional response bias inasmuch as the employers with the lease changes respond first. So the earliest releases tend to match whatever was going on before. Then the employers who had to do paperwork respond. And then, finally, someone gets around to calling the folks who never got back. Some of them aren’t around anymore.
So yeah, the directional tendency in revisions is well documented. And for a long time, the early releases were appreciated. But maybe American statistical and media literacy is such that only final releases should be released, which would mean we’d always be working with data 6 months to a year out of date.
That's all well and good in theory, but job reports data over recent years have noticeably shifted towards downward monthly revisions. Prior to the pandemic response, the graph [1] looks much more balanced with regards to positive and negative decisions.
> but job reports data over recent years have noticeably shifted towards downward monthly revisions. Prior to the pandemic response, the graph [1] looks much more balanced with regards to positive and negative decisions
Yes. The reasons for this are well documented. Changing methodology for the preview estimates is rigorous. That means our published estimates lag best estimates, something the primary sources note in every release if one gets past the headlines.
Also, if you have one year of massive job gains and four years of flat and falling, you’ll spend most of your epoch biased one way. Again, not a sign of methodological problems. Just a predictable methodological artifact that folks are supposed to be able to incorporate before using, much less emotionally reacting to, the data.
Why would the shift to a new methodology bias the estimates to one end? I would expect a new methodology to make comparisons of data between the two systems to potentially be unhelpful, but I wouldn't expect a valid methodology to bias one way or another.
Related, I wouldn't expect past data to bias a current estimate. If 6 or 12 months of positive growth biases the next prediction it falls into the hot hands fallacy. It isn't predicting based on current predictions, its predicting based on recent past behavior and extrapolating forward. This only makes sense to do if the data is not yet available, and even then the extrapolation isn't a useful estimate of current conditions.
Sure, but it's totally ridiculous to post about that without discussing the survey response rate, which is the cause of that drift. People are attributing it to political meddling, and that is baseless.
Naturally all of this metadata about the BLS surveys is available for free from the BLS, so you can just go look at it.
Interesting that you're claiming this is baseless without providing any sources for your alternative. How do you know that (a) the response rate is down meaningfully and (b) that data shows a strong correlation or causation between the two?
That is a reasonable position, however the assumption that it is the administration that is gaming them vs other motivated parties is open for discussion.
It is in fact not at all reasonable. They are saying that the BLS stats can't be trusted because they totally misunderstand the survey methodology. That isn't a reason!
I’d counter that if we were doing a good job gathering data that these structural biases could be compensated for with more conservative initial numbers.
At some point a lack of decision to take compensating action becomes faking the numbers.
> if we were doing a good job gathering data that these structural biases could be compensated for with more conservative initial numbers
There is no more conservative. The data will bias in the direction of trend. The point of the data are, in part, to measure that trend. Fucking with it to make it politically correct to the statistically illiterate is precisely the sort of degradation of data we’re worried about.
(They’re also useless as a time series if the methodology changes quarter to quarter. That’s the job of analysis. Not the data.)
What you wrote suggests the data will bias predictably, which matches my understanding.
Reporting biased data as the default because the bias compensation is already built into the audience seems like a weak argument for not improving.
They can provide for the continuation of data visibility/granularity by releasing the prior numbers as previously calculated and at the same time changing the calculation of the headline number to be better compensated.
The simpler argument is that changing it at all will result in a negative step change in the reporting that no one wants to take accountability for.
> What you wrote suggests the data will bias predictably
Ex post facto. Before the fact, we don’t know.
Imagine you know the weather will be a strong gust regardless of direction. Averaging the models will produce a central estimate. But you know it will be biased away from the center. You just don’t know, until it happens, in which direction.
> They can provide for the continuation of data visibility/granularity by releasing the prior numbers as previously calculated and at the same time changing the calculation of the headline number to be better compensated
They do. These data are all recalculated with each methodological change. They’re just deprecated indices the media don’t report on because they’re of academic, not broad, concern.
> simpler argument is that changing it at all will result in a negative step change in the reporting
Simpler but wrong. Those data would be useless for the same reason we don’t let CEOs smooth revenues.
> It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down.
There have been revisions since the forever, and this is because they depend in part of surveys, and if companies (and the people with-in them) don't bother responding in a timely or accurate manner then that's going to throw the sampling off.
> CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).
Post-COVID surveying seems to have become more difficult (and BLS budget stagnation/cuts haven't helped). This has been a known issue for a while; see Odd Lots episode "Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying":
> Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly.
My argument wasn't that there shouldn't be revisions though, only that recent years have shown consistent negative revisions rather then a roughly even distribution.
If response rates are down or something else is making surveys more difficult, its reasonable that confidence windows would weaken and size of revisions would increase. Its unreasonable that difficulty in surveying would lead to a consistent bias in results though, that's a methodological issue at best.
I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodology itself is seriously flawed ( and likely was from get go, but these days, it is absolutely the worst possible mix of options ).
Honestly, your comment made me mildly angry. That said, can you say why you believe parent's comment is misleading?
I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens.
Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism. There's still be the other distortions in the data to account for, but I'd at least have an instance proving that yeah, there is somebody filling out these surveys and it isn't just something they say they do to make their magic unemployment number sound legit.
Note, I'm in a massive sceptical shit phase at the moment. Last decade has burned my optimism hard. So when it comes to my ability to assume benevolent intent right now, there's a heavy bias against doing it, and a heavier bias in the direction of "what would be the easiest way to keep the System limping along?" The answer to that is "say you do one thing, in reality do another, and as long as no one comes lookin', it's gold." The finance industry runs on Trust moreso than anything else, and there ain't much to be said for Trusting anything you can't verify these days. Not from other humans.
> if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism
> I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey.
Unless you have introduced yourself with this question to thousands of people, this is a totally meaningless statement. It says more about your social circle, your grasp of descriptive statistics, and the weird online stew you are soaking your brain in than it says about the CPS.
I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today?
So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?
Alternative is to build something better. Just about anything is better than the current survey system. What I would propose is something akin to "derived real-data unemployment system". All this data exists now, but is distributed. It can be stitched together, but if one was so inclined.
You made the argument and provided zero supporting evidence. As it stands, it's merely an opinion, and appears to be an uninformed one until you prove otherwise. That's what people are asking you to do.
Sigh, your supporting evidence is a record of someone saying something, which itself is merely an opinion.. men in glass houses and all that. The interesting thing about my opinion is that while it may not be AS informed as yours, it is notably above the average level of knowledge when it comes to BLS.
<< That's what people are asking you to do.
No. What I am being asked to do is: "Show me a better way, but I only accept a better way that is already utilized by someone else". Not a recipe for a thoughtful exchange of ideas.
mark_l_watson says"The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' "
(1)This is normal human behavior usually described as "capitalism". It has been well-studied & the literature awaits you, e.g., The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 by Scottish economist Adam Smith. Go ahead: if you read the entire tome you may be the first man to do so. Perhaps you could write a usefully shortened version or versions of it.
mark_l_watson says"Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses."
(2)the behavior isn't immoral, as you will find by merely educating yourself [see (1)].
(3)There was/is no [US]"empire". And certainly none in the sense of the Persian, Mongol, Roman, incan, Spanish, British, French, or even, God forbid, Belgian empire, all of which were true empires.
It's worse - important metrics like inflation are distorted by "hedonic adjustment" - i.e. pretending cars are getting cheaper because, even though they're getting more expensive, you get "more car" (ABS, airbags, remote unlock, heated seats (if you pay the subscription), hidden GPS tracking..):
If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.
I'm not following the file disclosures in particular detail; I haven't yet heard any disclosures from the files that are evidence of kompromat. What are you thinking of?
OK, so hearsay from Epstein. Which could easily be reliable. And could also not be. Also unclear precisely what "dirty" means. So sure, it adds to the pile, but we're not there yet, IMO.
Notice how this information is a publically accessible web server?
This is quite unusual definition of "kompromat".
Look, when it comes to Trump, at this point, there likely is no "kompromat" that would affect him. He could have raped and murdered a 5 year old at the behest of Russian intelligence services, and his MAGA base would defend it as somehow part of God's grand plan for the republic. What is there that could be revealed about him at this point that would actually change anything?
The man was found guilty of sexual assault, recorded boasting about sexually assaulting women, found guilty of real estate fraud .. and re-elected. Maybe you can imagine some sort of of "kompromat" that would actually impact him in a way that diminished his power, but I cannot.
We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.
What does "best" means? Which population size would you consider comparable to the US (i assume you don't meant it in a way in which Germany would be the best 83,6 mil population country in the World)?
The collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical in many ways. It's rare that collapse of an empire can be pinpointed to a single day. And what you saw was a result of shock therapy imposed from the outside. I doubt that would happen to the US.
It's unlikely collapse will be felt as a singular, apocalyptic event. More like a slow, steady loss of influence and excess wealth. Countries on the periphery stop considering the empire's perspectives before making their own decisions. Other trading partners emerge. Bridges stop getting maintained until they're no longer usable.
And soft power declines. Imagine a day when the biggest pop star in the US, someone on the scale of Michael Jackson or Madonna nationally, is virtually unknown outside of its borders.
There are reasons to believe the American empire is in decline, but I maintain this will look more like Britain. It could take 50 years before American fully realize it.
Thankfully, that means there's plenty of time to reverse or mitigate the trends, or to make a decision to strengthen the Republic over the Empire.
I beg to differ. The collapse of USSR was 100% caused by internal causes.
First was the abominable low productivity in oil/gas and agricultural sectors from 1950s through 1980s.
Then came the corruption of Brezhnev era. Andropov tried to get some reforms going: first against corruption and then some Chinese-style economic changes. But Andropov died very quickly.
Eventually came Gorbachev- who had good intentions. Unfortunately he prioritized political reforms over economic. He wanted economic reforms with no pain, something to show his people some progress. Unfortunately that was impossible so he ended up with some half baked ideas (like limit alcohol sales. Or letting factory managers keep their profits expecting the managers to invest profits in new technology- managers used the profits to pay themselves. Or introduce free markets pricing between factories-when managers complained they had to pay market prices on inputs and nobody were buying their outputs the result was to subsidize factories for both inputs and outputs)
The result of these Econ reforms was that the Soviet state was running out of money. (A humanitarian policy was that for the first time in Russia’s history bad agricultural results did not result in famine-for the first time the govt bought food on the international market paying in Western currencies)
Add a few ambitious politicians who did not want to take orders from the center (Yeltsin being the principal example, but also Kravchuk) and the process of dissolution already started by the Baltic independence could only end with total collapse.
The shock therapy you mention was designed, advocated, and ultimately implemented by Gaidar - a Soviet economist fully trained by the Soviet state.
Sorry for the long reply. If you are interested in this topic I recommend reading two books, both called “Collapse” one written by Gaidar, the other one written by Zubok.
| The collapse of USSR was 100% caused by internal causes.
I wouldn't take the time to argue otherwise, although it's a question of what's considered an "internal cause." Afghanistan comes to mind. But generally, yes, absent any external pressure, the internal mismanagement still would have had the Soviet system in a very bad way and collapse would have been a matter of time.
So we're not particularly in disagreement there, except for matters of degree (100%? eh.)
But I disagree strongly that shock therapy can be put solely on the shoulders of Gaidar. You can't talk about shock therapy without talking about Jeffrey Sachs. Although I wouldn't put it all on his shoulders either. It was an extremely complicated situation from top to bottom.
But most of all, my post was really more about the how the American empire's fall will not look like the Soviet's. And I stand by that completely.
Afghanistan - economically not a big impact. The economic pressures in the 80s were low agricultural productivity requiring imports from Western countries, low oil/gas prices and productivity, endemic corruption. And if we really want to be pedantic, nobody forced USSR to invade Afghanistan.
I had to look up Jeffrey Sachs (0). He was an adviser-that is all he did. He did not impose anything on Yeltsin or Russia.
I agree that American decline will not resemble Russian collapse. Their commonality is both declines have internal causes. But other than that there isn’t much in common.
Britain's demise was relatively swift, and took place over the course of the two world wars. It fell almost immediately into vassalage, under the US. Not quite a bang, but not as drawn out as you suggest.
Its former colonies experienced all I described above and more. In this case, the colonies are most of the world: where are the bases? Everywhere.
With the States, here's the scenario, not too far fetched. We will see 1) constitutional breakdown, as Trump (or his crew) digs in, and 2) economic breakdown, 2008 but exponentially worse.
This would constitute a Soviet scale collapse, to my mind.
I put the collapse of Britain's empire at around 75 years, which is faster than the Ottomans or Spanish empires, but still nothing compared to the Soviets, which to reiterate, was an historical anomaly.
As for the US, for all the current turmoil, the dollar is still supreme in global economics, its soft power is still immense, despite the immigration chaos its still the primary destination for immigrants, and it would take decades for countries to push out our military bases because doing so would often mean building up their own military infrastructure.
Trump's unconstitutionality is a threat, and that the US has a series of bubbles built on shaky economics is not controversial. But I don't see how that could possibly result in a Soviet style singular day of collapse. At least internally, there isn't a cultural and linguistic separation between states the way there was with Russian imposition on their Soviet satellite countries.
And of course, there's the previously mentioned shock therapy, something that wouldn't have the same level of violent effect because the US is already a market economy. And there's nobody powerful enough to impose something like that on us regardless. Unlike the Soviets, if the US goes down, much of the world goes down with us, so there's strong incentives for an off-ramp, not a destabilization.
I agree there are major structural issues, and the US democratic system is being stress tested daily, but its all symptoms of decline, not imminent collapse.
The situations are not comparable at all. That was the collapse of an authoritarian (wasn’t totalitarian anymore by the time it’d collapse) system running (badly) on command economy. Most of the points you mention are therefore just really off.
Say, the Baltics flipping. Where the hell are we supposed to flip to? Russia? Where ethnic minorities are sent to die in expansionist wars in disproportionate numbers?
I believe OP was referring to Baltics flipping from USSR to the West (the EU). Some US analogues might include Canada flipping (already happening), no more coups in South American countries that vote in a "wrong" government, or the Middle Eastern countries allying with China (no longer impossible).
It's the incredible level of interwoven left/right, progressive/conservative, urban/rural populations in more or less every state.
More people voted for the current president in CA than in more or less any other state. Yet it is viewed as a "blue" state. The millions of Democratic voters in large cities like Houston or Atlanta may not control their state legislatures, but they are not going to sit by as those legislatures attempt to secede. Rural voters across most states are not going to sit by while their urban-controlled legislatures attempt to secede.
We don't have "peripheral" states here, and we don't have "red or blue" states. We have a mostly urban/rural divide that does not follow state boundaries in any sense at all.
These are niche behaviors. Most Americans live where they live, plan to remain there (with the possible exception of what is left of the trans community in nominally red states, and some women in similar states). If and when the shit truly hits the fan (to the extent that it has not already done so), most Americans will be right where they are now, without bunkers and having filed their taxes.
I’m not talking about how most people are operating. I’m talking about the current thought movements going on and what people are doing because of the times. These are each niche things that are becoming popularized ideas. The divide you’re talking about Red vs Blue is not where strong bonds lie. We can see that from the extreme flip-flopping on Trump by various demographics and the similarities between Maga and Democratic party being built through small disparate demographics. It might take another 5 or 10 years but people will probably largely stop paying federal taxes and put the money into savings or something elsewhere.
I feel like the lesson from other countries is that the military will be the last thing to go. Public funding of everything else will be sacrificed to keep the military powerful, and leaders will be from the military. That will be a complete breakdown of democracy of course.
I do not think it will happen but this is why in discussions about this happening, or historical fiction, typically the places that break off are the ones that were distinct _before_ they joined the US. Any of the 13 colonies, New England as a block having the strongest colonial identity that I'm aware of, Texas, or California generally are where it's assumed to start as those were countries/had identities very much outside of the US while also having economies that might be ok.
It won't change until states nominally considered "red" or "blue" actually lose the vast majority of their nominally opposed population (e.g. Atlanta's current population migrates out of GA). Until then, just about every state is a complex mixture of populations with different political alignments and sufficient sizes to make secession extremely difficult if not impossible.
Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading
Excerpts:
“On its merits, you can defend the change,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, a forecasting firm. “Optically, it’s just not a good look in an environment when people are worried about political interference.”
Mr. Sharif said he did not believe the change was politically motivated. But Courtney Shupert, an economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, another forecasting firm, said such decisions undermine public confidence in the statistical system.
“It seems like we are moving to more of a vague, uncertain, cloudy data quality environment that is going to make market participants less confident in the data that we do receive,” Ms. Shupert said.
It's sad how counter productive the unreliable economic data is. The people buying groceries know that things are more expensive. And the people looking for a job know how hard it is to find work.
But this administration wants to say everything is fine, and fires those that say otherwise. So now unemployment seems under control even though it's not great.
Now the Fed, with their dual mandate to maintain a healthy labor market and control inflation, is considering raising rates. If it turns out the job market was much worse than we realized, raising rates could tank the economy more than it already is tanking. All because they wanted to pretend everything is fine.
Unfortunately America has pretended everything was fine for at the very least 130 years now, arguably longer, and we have allowed an extremely predatory, toxic, parasitic, fraudulent, thieving and lying set of people plunder not only the money through "money printing" but also plunder the very government through various types and forms of judicial and legislative authoritarian fraud, which was then installed in people's minds through education as the acceptable norm even though there was nothing "democratic" of free, let alone Constitutional about it.
It seems nobody has posted this, but the only reason why this would ever be an issue is the principal–agent problem. When a representative democracy has a significant divergence between the representatives and the people being represented, we encounter this:
the answer is reliable money. how much money would you pick up a verified 1 minute survey from the real u.s. government for? I'd do it for $5. (=$300 per hour) and hope for as many calls as possible.
For comparison purposes the U.S. budget is about $20,000 per person ($7t budget, a bit under 350m people), so the government could definitely pay you to answer their "spam" calls. (While mandating that first parties show that it is the real U.S. government and not a spammer.)
So it would be your actual first party telephone showing "Answer this real call from the U.S. government for $5 instantly, 1 minute average call time."
I think that would be a good way to get good data fast. What do you think? (At the same time, impersonating the U.S. government would remain illegal, and the first party would ensure the payment is real.)
That will lead to serious problems, as in the case of China, underestimating threats lead to losing edge, from EV to robots and other vital tech, and without experts to ground policy in reality, the country risks making erratic market moves and failing to spot risks from adversaries like China or Russia.Add to that inexperienced staff in the administration who makes the U.S. easier to manipulate.
The books Why Nations Fail and The Narrow Corridor (by two of the winners of past years Nobel Economics award, both books are a simple thesis and lots of historical examples IMHO) will have to be updated to include this and other current events in the USA. This is one of many aspects mentioned in both books.
- When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
I have no idea which is more relevant here. Looking at the first one, my whole life people have been complaining that the measures that get touted in political discourse don't reflect quality of life. So if we stop looking at those as measures because they cease to be reliable, maybe they stop getting myopically optimized and we can get less myopic about what we prioritize in aggregate.
But looking at the second one, I've also wondered whether those measures really do reflect typical quality of life, and it's just that the people doing worse than typical will always see the measure as the wrong measure. So then we'd be losing the ability to prioritize actually useful things.
In my heart though, I kinda lean towards the first one. I've been in enough orgs where "the dashboard goes up" is incentivized to the detriment of the unmeasurable things that actually matter to the org.
The article says: US Government surveys are suffering from poor response rates and decreasing budgets so business leaders will have to explore other options to improve reliability.
This thread says: American Empire is dying and the world is a fraud.
Are all of you bots? Is apocalyptic cynicism this widespread? Fact is that most of the world already gets by with a fraction of the economic data we produce. We have enjoyed an incredibly high standard for breadth, depth and quality of data and it's now proving unsustainable. Political manipulation thus far remains a specter to be wary of, but there's no indication any headline numbers are inaccurate. The downstream affects on policy are equally off in the distance maybe never to appear.
One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing.
There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being upset about job reports not showing favourable information and so on. Good information allows good decision-making and it's important we don't break that. Hopefully the current surge of low-quality corrupt executive choices isn't met by a counter-surge that kicks out people like Jerome Powell because he's a multi-millionaire capitalist or whatever.
I think it won't be. The establishment folks are mostly sensible. It's the new crop of "no property tax" and "no income tax for tips" and "no tax for under $100k earners" and so on that makes me worried, but I'm hoping it will all settle down soon.
We'll have to find better surveying methods than the phone surveys but provided #2 and #3 are solved in the article, which is just a matter of switching the admin, then we should be able to.
This ratchet effect of partially righting the ship every four years followed by drunken sailors YOLOing further into a reef because the ‘responsible party’ didn’t fix things fast enough is unsustainable. No clue how it ends but it’s so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage.
> so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage
Tangentially related, there was a local property nearby that had these large, aesthetic trees in the yard. The house was sold, a developer cut them all and flipped the house for sale.
I really have a hard time understanding the analogy of the "responsible party" existing, when it was objectively the Biden administration that did the most damage to the average American.
COVID damaged the average American. The Biden administration (and the preceding Trump administration) did not perform perfectly by any means, but US inflation was below that of most other OECD countries. Real wages took a serious hit and I understand people being mad about that, but it’s hard to imagine a world where the supply chain disruptions don’t cause real living standards to fall at least a little bit.
Only possible if we can keep the party that repeatedly destroys the economy when they get into power, out of office for a generation or two. That seems unlikely considering the overall stupidity of the electorate.
> just a matter of switching the admin, which we should be able to
I wish I shared your optimism. Being unable to change the admin has been the default state. The recent few centuries have been an exception. It's a big ship that we need to turn here. Might take longer than we think if we can manage it at all.
It's important to be realistic and honest about the short term, but optimistic about the long term. If you give in to doom and get cynical, you won't accomplish anything, and you're just doing their work for them.
The establishment has been replaced by MAGA and The Heritage Foundation extremists. The "data collection", surveys, remote-sensing etc are things they all want to get rid of and are doing so.
Here's one article from last year about climate datasets being disappeared,
"The change may cause policymakers to misjudge the economy’s health, investors to lose confidence in the reliability of the data, and the public to disengage from participating in official measures altogether."
Many neoliberal Western countries with good data have completely fumbled their economies post-GFC and post-Covid, just look at Canada's disastrous GDP per capita growth.
Canada’s population has increased at an astonishing rate, I wonder if that affects the per capita numbers. If you have the same industry in 2011 and 2026 but population went from 35 million to 42 million, per capita the numbers look terrible
According to OECD [1], population growth outran capital, housing, and infrastructure. So it's kind of like they didn't have enough "slots" to plug all of these additional people into.
They don't claim this is to only or even primary cause of Canada's weak per-capita GDP growth though. As you would expect, there are many, many causes.
There is a valid both sides argument to a lot of these issues IMO, but where the discussion ought to be is at how extreme “one” side has taken it.
Whether it’s executive orders, corruption, pardons, appointments, obstruction, gerrymandering. pedophilia, lying, etc. I don’t think there’s a valid defence of just how far one particular side has gone (and proactively I might add).
Why is there always a both sides-er in these discussions?
FWIW, one party generally deferred to nonpartisan commissions to draw boundaries to avoid gerrymandering. So one “side” did far more than propose a solution, they did the right thing even when the other side wasn’t.
Gerrymandering is the worst example to pick when you’re pushing both-sides-bad.
I’ll reply in good faith even though I detect sarcasm in your comment.
Generally nonpartisan commissions prioritise contiguity and compactness. There is an element of “I know it when I see it” because you’re trying to avoid both packing (packing minority voters from disparate areas into one) and cracking (distributing a minority district like Salt Like City into its 4 neighbouring districts, ensuring the city can’t vote for … whoever cities generally vote for).
So there is a human element involved, but these commissions generally do a reasonable job. You know how we know? States that move from nonpartisan to partisan commissions cause a dramatic change in the results of the next election. If the nonpartisan was biased like you imply with your air quotes, we wouldn’t observe that effect.
Also there are algorithms to draw fair districts without needing human judgement. See this paper[1] that expounds on one such algorithm.
1 - Swamy, R., King, D. M., & Jacobson, S. H. (2022). Multiobjective optimization for politically fair districting: A scalable multilevel approach. Operations Research, 71(2), 536–562. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2311
I don't know why I'd trust TikToks when I also shop at multiple grocery stores every week.
Maybe there are a few outliers, but food inflation is definitely nowhere near 75=100+% YoY. The official price inflation numbers are much closer to what I've personally observed irl than what you see in viral TikToks.
TikToks get attention for being outlandish/exceptional, not for being an accurate representation of the norm.
The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 levels for the important goods.
I have some basic guidelines for an acceptable range that are from when I started in 2015.
Milk: $2.50 / g
Frozen Fruit $2/ lb
Cheese $3 / lb
Wheat $3 / 5lb
Oats $3 / 40 40 oz
Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast $2 / lb
These are all prices that I am still able to routinely meet or exceed in 2026.
The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed.
This is a Bad Thing. Sure when I do grocery shopping I keep an eye out for bargains, but I also don't want to have my buying choices overly shaped by the retailer so I end up spending money on stuff I don't really want. I especially don't want to deal with coupons and buy-this-get-that offers. Planning out what to eat and remembering to get what I need is enough mental effort without having to spend time on discountmaxxing which is really just another kind of advertising.
acceptable range [...] Cheese $3 / lb
I don't know what kind of cheese you're getting for $3/lb but I'm pretty sure it isn't good for you.
I track my grocery spend and even with three growing kids it's gone up 18% the last 6 years. It's not scientific but I don't see how your statement can be true unless by "many items" you're not talking about the bulk of what my family spends
I regularly buy whole chickens (locally raised free range) for $1/lb. With individual cuts comparably cheap (and often BOGO). I live in an above-average, CoL area too.
I remember seeing a lot of social media posts during the Biden admin about grocery prices... Turns out a lot of folks were just comparing the same cart, not taking into account discontinued items that were being auto-replaced with more expensive goods, or things like that. It wasn't always an accurate representation.
For Iran, China, USSR, for example, you had to back in estimates from observable benchmark information uncontaminated by dictatorships. You didn't have to do that with the US.
The US standard has been to document and standardize approaches -- and identify when things are changed and why. This was not common across all economies. It does give us several similar streams, e.g several versions of unemployment.
its a measurement process of a large and complicated system. some of the things you cite are actually signs that the system was actually kind of working. CPI is a basket of indicators, there is no way that's ever going to capture the whole picture.
the best we can ask for is apolitical appointees whose goal is to improve the process and transparency about how the data was collected, publication of the raw numbers, and publication of the methodology used to synthesize it.
my understanding that the appointment process has been corrupted, but do we know to what degree transparency has?
No, the bad, lazy, and outright incorrect takes are downvoted to oblivion. They just have a lot of child comments because HNers like nothing more than rebutting the dumbest opinions.
People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests.
I think the reliability problem is very bad. It's not just that the US government is encouraging fraud, it's also that the average American hates AI and data science. Usually, the public would prefer reliable data, but in this case, Americans seem to prefer corruption just to spite the AI.
We're certainly living in a post-truth country. By vilifying higher education, the assumption that Americans can interpret data is challenging. Therefore, Americans are consuming biased information in their online bubbles because their media is comfortable with fraudulent data.
A concrete example of what happens whenUS economic data becomes unreliable is employment numbers. At the end of 2025, the government couldn't produce any data because of the government shutdown. Most quants and analysts utilized ADP numbers instead. A few years ago, the ADP payroll numbers and the projections by the government were perceived as aligned. This is no longer the case, and most traders rely more on ADP indicators for things like the unemployment rate.
Speculating on what other data is fraudulent, I suspect that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will become meaningless. It was supposed to be an indicator for economic wellbeing but now best describes wealth inequality. Nominal GDP is a slightly better measure because it adjusts for things like inflation but it's based on government produced data.
Lastly, there is widespread fraud in climate data in order to deny climate change. The data feeds into economic models and affects property values and insurance rates. I have personally received gag orders from government agencies from both the US and Europe for publishing environmental data.
>They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus
That was fake news:
In May 2020, Jones was terminated from her position managing the team that created Florida's ArcGIS COVID-19 dashboard after being repeatedly reprimanded for sharing the department's work online without authorization. Jones alleged instead that she was told to manipulate the dashboard's data and that her firing was retaliation for her refusal. The OIG exonerated state health officials, finding her allegations to be unsubstantiated and unfounded. Jones later posted on social media a forgery of the dismissal letter from the Florida Commission on Human Relations, such that it appeared that her complaint had been validated.
In December 2022, she signed a deferred prosecution agreement admitting guilt to unauthorized use of the state's emergency alert system on November 10, 2020, which resulted in her home being searched under warrant by state police in December 2020. The execution of the warrant with armed police, widely referred to as a raid, was due to a 2016 battery charge against Jones by the Louisiana State University police. In 2023, Jones pled no-contest to a 2019 charge of cyberstalking a former Florida State University student. She was fired from both institutions.
Citing Rebekah Jones in your argument is the opposite of convincing. She forged documents related to her firing to make her appear more sympathetic. She has been adjudicated guilty of cyberstalking and misuse of the state’s emergency notification system, and I haven’t seen a credible defense against those accusations. She’s a fraud, and many in the media uncritically boosted her claims because they shared her political aims. That people still cite her is proof of the old adage that a lie can travel across the world before the truth can lace its boots.
I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm firmly in favor of fact based thinking, and (I suspect) share your disdain for magical thinking. My objection is to the selective use of statistics to shape the facts to support a predefined narrative.
Statistics are, first and foremost, a set of techniques for summarizing and simplifying data by reducing a large amount of raw facts to a few easily grasped parameters. They can be very powerful when used for good (e.g. to help you answer your own questions about the data) but that very power can even more readily be abused for evil when they are used to persuade others. This is what the quote refers to. Statistics are a powerful way to lie. That's what it says, and it is true.
Examples: p-hacking, Anscombe's quartet, all manner of chart crimes, the numerology of quants (there's some magical thinking for you), the isolated, uncontextualized "significant numbers" so loved by journalists, etc.
As for your claim that it is "solely used to add thin validation to simply rejecting critical consideration of every evidence"... do you have anything to back that up? Note that as worded it is clearly false, since I am using it in the original sense and it only takes a single exception to refute such a broad claim.
Can you tell us a bit more about the gag orders? I find it fascinating that all the discussion about climate change has largely disappeared after LLMs became mainstream, and the idea that state actors may be suppressing data is equally fascinating/terrifying.
I really don’t like people bashing my state, especially when they’re repeating made-up bullshit. Do you just believe anything negative you read as long as it fits your views?
That’s 122,000 out of a labor force size of 170 million!!
Yes, month to month you have large absolute error bars vs. the monthly delta, but being an imperfect monthly barometer of labor force momentum is only the headline use of the establishment report.
While we're on the topic, why is it that we love to point the finger at other countries' corruption and we completely ignore the very obvious, rampant corruption in our own government? And I mean on both sides - Democrat and Republican. Insider trading, revolving door policies, etc. That's not even mentioning why we have people like Luigi Mangione. That's a whole separate elephant in the room.
Please don't "both side" this. As much as there is corruption in any administration, R or D, the levels we are seeing now are completely unprecedent and blunt. EG: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/politics/trump-fundraise-emai... (from earlier this morning on the HN frontpage)
On that topic, how many presidents in the past have had merch stores after elected? I can understand fundraising during a campaign, but after winning or losing, the fundraising usually stops.
Merch. NFTs. Playing cards. Crypto coins. A phone. It's like we have Dennis Duffy as POTUS. If it were 40 years ago it would be like Reagan starting his own MLM.
And the worst part is, I don't think we will ever close this door. Even if the Democrats are in charge of the next presidency, the temptation of easy money will be too strong to resist. It wasn't done in the past, because it was assumed that the people would push back severely, but now that it is clear that they won't, it is full speed ahead.
This is a lot of similar-sounding-but-different problems.
EDIT:
For those not realizing that China has a long history of less-trustworthy stats, along with Iran and some other governments, here is some reading you can consider
On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing.
On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most.
It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust.
Europe won't be able to catch that. They're too busy regulating ahead of the tech. They're going to be a decade behind if they keep it up.
If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. In a runaway takeoff scenario, they replace all their factory workers with robots and quickly scale and cost optimize. If America is smart, we might be able to do that too.
Our growth could accelerate or crater. These are wild times. More exciting than the last 20.
America needs to start pumping out new energy projects. It needs to make friends with all of its former allies. And it needs to import PhD students.
And we do need factories and raw inputs. The robots will take over for humans within a decade. If we stick the landing, we could be the new China right here at home.
Edit: rate limited on replies, so updating my comment instead.
Edit 2: Europe supplies the EUV lithography, but intelligence manifests higher up the stack. If we're talking rate limits, lots of countries supply critical inputs.
I'm saying that Europe hasn't made strides towards developing their own models and infra, and it doesn't look like it's even close to starting to attack this problem. I want it to.
Edit 3: What I'm saying is that these tailwinds might put America back into the position it was in post-WWII. Manufacturing, tech, and science powerhouse in all the places that matter. Peers a generation or two behind. That's literally where America was after the war, and it looks like we could be teeing up for a repeat if it all doesn't unravel first.
America needs to double down on investing in energy and factories now. It looks like it will pay off in a big way.
Edit 4:
> You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code
I would be extremely geopolitically anxious to rely on another country's tech in a take off scenario. Those tokens might be diverted to US businesses and factories. Or the US might strong arm concessions out of Europe. Europe needs domestic capability for this now.
It's not just Europe and sovereign nations. Workers and labor capital will be effectively frozen out of participation if there aren't open source equivalents.
> This is an downright evil take on the current situation.
It's just reality. Multipolarity means we're going to see a lot more of this type of framing, because it's what's happening on the ground.
This is an downright evil take on the current situation. The supply chains are so complex that no single country is capable of replicating them entirely. It starts with the fact that the required natural resources are distributed around the globe in a way that no country has access to all of them. The production chains from resources to finished machines are downright byzantine. And this becomes recursive with the need for specialized tools and their own production chains along the way. You need trains amd trucks and ships to be able to build semiconductors, for example. Except for maybe China pr India, there is no country that has the manpower to cover all of this domestically. The supply of workers and training falls far too short.
Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run.
The result is either a silent collapse of that country's economy or the start of an ill-conceived war of conquest to gain by force what the country cannot supply itself.
> Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run.
The problem is that Europe does not have a choice here. The Greenland steal crisis is on hold, but not fixed. America clearly shown it will abuse any ties there are - it will lock accounts to tech to bully and get what they want. It will use tariffs to bully countries to make laws, release presidents friends criminals from prisons, you name it.
Meanwhile, America seems to take Russian side in Russian expansion. Meanwhile, America is just cause major oil issue and potentially triggered next refugees crisis. Meanwhile, America clearly shown it does not even pretend to care bout war crimes and international law at all. It is sponsoring afd and other fascist parties all around the Europe while openly insulting Europe. Maybe it is too late for disconnect, but not trying would basically be a suicide for Europe.
It would be great if it was not "us vs them". But it is "us vs them". Trust toward American made Europe super vulnerable.
The US isn't the navel of the world. It is one country that is slowly removing itself from international trade and the international scientific community.
The European Union has many friendly trading partners left in the world and is also receiving an influx of previously US based talent. The trade decisions of the US aren't forcing the EU into isolationism. This is where your argument goes wrong IMO.
The US government has announced that it plans to actively support extreme right wing parties in the EU. If this comes to pass, it is a direct attack on political freedom in those countries, separate from any economic policy decisions. I don't know how well EU countries can defend themselves against this in the short amd medium term. Some counties have better defenses than others. But I see virtually all of them struggling.
> It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust.
> Europe won't be able to catch that.
You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code? If Claude Code is the one reaping the majority of the benefits of "spit[ing] out a week's worth of business automation tasks", then it's not worth much to the business. If Claude Code isn't the one reaping the majority of those benefits, then...Europe can use Claude Code too and reap the benefits for their business as well.
Weird how all the American social media companies continue to try to operate in Europe in spit of the massive fines they keep on racking up in court. They can't help themselves, if there is money to be made they got to get in there.
The US government and software industry do not want Europe using Chinese AI for similar soft power reasons. A 1-billion strong market acclimating to Chinese *aaS is a net-loss for the US - see the panic about Canada allowing a few thousand Chinese cars
Open models are, at worst, a few months behind SOTA closed models. This has been the case since 2024, and there's no indication that it's going to change.
You don't need anybody to permit you access.
You can, in all seriousness, thank Meta and the Chinese for this.
> Open models are, at worst, a few months behind SOTA closed models.
What open models are "a few months behind" Claude Code Opus, Google Nano Banana Pro, or ByteDance Seedance 2.0?
Another big problem with the open models is that the ecosystem targets consumer GPUs rather than running in the cloud. The future is a thin client world with stuff at the edge being generations behind in performance.
> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example.
Yeah, the EUV photolithography machine, but not much else. American companies like Lam Research and Applied Materials are the leaders in thin film deposition and etch, KLA Tencor is the leader in metrology, and Synopsys and Cadance are the leaders in EDA (though there's also Germany's Mentor Graphics).
> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example
The US, not Europe.
ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2].
ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to prevent a duopoly forming between Nikon and Canon for photolithography as part of an antitrust battle.
And the next generation of lithography tooling coming into Taiwan is being funded and developed by Japan [3] due to MUFG, Mitsui, Mizuho, and SoftBank becoming the primary capital partners for Taiwan's electronics industry [4]. This is also why TSMC is expanding in Japan and Taiwanese players are transferring IP to Rapidus.
Additonally, all the packaging, testing, and design work - especially leading edge nodes - is done in Asia, the US, and even Israel but not Europe.
---
Personally, I think Europe is too far behind at this point for the EUV and High NA EUV boom - Taiwan, the US, Japan, South Korea, China, and others deployed significant amounts of capital and subsidizes in the late 2010s and early 2020s and worked to build IP partnerships for front-end work with players like TSMC (US, Japan), UMC (China until 2019), PSMC (Japan, India), and Samsung (US).
The EU had a shot but Intel rolled back their Germany expansion plan in order to double down on 18A in Arizona, and TSMC decided to double down on Japan. Additonally, all the backend work is done in Taiwan, South Korea, China, ASEAN (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam), Japan, the US, and even India now because Micron, Samsung, Amkor, and others transferred their IP there, and design is primarily concentrated in Taiwan, the US, China, Israel, and India and with Malaysia and Vietnam likely to become much more prominent in the next few years due to Arm and Marvell respectively.
What the EU can instead do is concentrate on power electronics (already a strong suite) and compound semiconductors (already a strong suite) and target a leapfrog technology like 2D semiconductor design and fabrication which is still in it's infancy and also has applications for quantum computing. The EU already has the capacity for "legacy" (but still critical) semiconductors but is too late to the game for sub-14nm fabrication.
And based on the kind of fundamental research and funding I've been seeing in the EU, this is the strategy that appears to be increasingly adopted within the EU - but this is something the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, the UK, Singapore, Canada, and even Vietnam and India are doing as well, and both French and German initiatives risk being misaligned due to mutual industrial competition. The fact that French players in the space would rather collaborate with Singaporean [5], Korean [6], American [7], Israeli [8], and Canadian [9] partners to develop IP instead of with other partners within Europe, it shows issues around misalignment.
On a separate note, as I mentioned before on HN, the French seem to be on the right track - other European states other than the UK less so. French players are much more ruthless and "American" in attitude.
The EUV IP which Cymer owns was originally part of EUV LLC, which was an LLNL [0], Sandia [1], and Intel [2] initiative as part of a CRADA. Cymer eventually began working on EUV as well building on EUV LLC and SEMATECH's work, and was eventually purchased by ASML after the Dept of Commerce and DoE backed their acquisition in 2013 [4], but included Cymer in additional CRADAs [3], ongoing projects [5], and maintain Cymer as a separate operating unit [6] within ASML.
It is these CRADAs that allow the DoE to exert its muscle on IP ownership and knowhow, as they are essentially a license of IP and personnel on US DoE terms [7] while also allowing for private partners to commercialize.
Its also useless without the rest of the machine, which is likely the absolutely most complex thing we can build, except maybe things like the stellarator.
The metrology is coming from Taiwan and California (HMI) as well. The Veldhoven campus "only" does final assembly (which should not be underestimated either - it's complex and high precision work).
But it's the light source and the metrology that is the blocker.
Edit: can't reply
> And mirrors from Carl Zeiss
Absolutely! But note how Zeiss/Trumpf is not ASML. If the US DoE changes the terms of the Cymer partnership and pressures Taiwan (who have just purchased $8B in US military equipment and whom the EU logistically speaking cannot protect) to revert the HMI acquisition, ASML is over.
Additonally, a lot of the muscle around Zeiss/Trumpf's mirrors is also at the Zeiss office in the Tri-Valley because of their partnership with LLNL.
And both China [0] and Japan [1] are in the process of building an Ex-ASML supply chain for EUV, NA EUV, and DUV, and will likely reach that point by the late 2020s to early 2030s.
> They're going to be a decade behind if they keep it up.
42 European here.
I've heard my whole adult life that Europe is ten years behind USA.
That doesn't feel that bad though. Being bleeding edge comes with the thrill of the avant garde prestige. But it does also mean you take the downsides of navigating the unexplored unknown in your face with no one to help with turn key solution when it happens.
If it means 10 years buffer on big social seismic troubles, that doesn't sound too bad if there is indeed an efficient shelve. That's not necessarily the case on every matter though, like global climate change is going to impact everyone, no matter the political isolation, and if a direct military aggression happens, it can be hurtful no matter how prepared is the society.
Arguably the greatest threats to the US's future is ourselves. If we fundamentally corrupt who we are as a nation we've already lost before the competition with rivals has even begun.
Our significant tech advances could become tools of our own downfall if they violate our values or undermine the social mobility of the American dream.
Frankly I think the people pushing this competitive mindset (particularly against the EU) are trying to mislead otherwise intelligent builder-sorts to not pay attention to the looting & destruction of American values.
Unlikely, but also not needed. The major ruling parties in The Netherlands are always strongly pro-US. Even if the US would attack the International Criminal Court in The Hague and kidnap its judges, the VVD (the liberal party) and the PVV (extreme-right party) would find ways to defend it.
There is no way they would go as far as cutting the US off from ASML. At least not without a significant shift in Dutch politics.
I have been a nay sayer on LLMs/GPTs in general having tried many, but recently Ive been shepherding a fairly complex code build through the latest opus model and its quite impressive.
It still gets things wrong occasionally but the time its saved me has been substantial. Im starting to enjoy it.
I recently built a reasonably-complex embedded controls project using codex and an esp32.
Starting with systems stuff like "Set up vscode with whatever it needs to work with codex and talk to an esp32," and ending with "Now add a web interface with persistent tunables that always runs in both AP and station modes," my prompt inputs were very terse.
And it'd just kind of go forth and just do it. It'd even design and run its own tests.
I never once looked at the code. For all I know, the code doesn't even exist.
And it works. I'll be using it in the field (in the proverbial middle of nowhere) all next week. I have every expectation that it will behave itself.
(I did spend a lot of time defining and refining some ground rules with AGENTS.md, but in theory I get to re-use that effort for the next go.)
>>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either.
My immediate thought is - why is it a race. Like holy shit imagine if we could actually work together instead of having this mentality of "if we work hard the other countries won't catch that". As someone who grew up in the golden age of globalization and rise of the information superhighway, the way countries are just siloing themselves and treating everything as a zero sum game is both sad and scary - that's exactly how you lead the world on a path to another world war - telling yourself that you don't need anyone else and in fact you need to beat them to the punch and everyone else is your opponent. If an alien race was looking at us right now they'd be shaking their heads.
People tend to choose extremes. Either a total globalization or zero-sum games only. Everything in between bears risks of a cognitive overload so should be avoided at all costs.
I honestly don't even understand what you mean by that. Europe has accepted an extraordinary number of refugees from Ukraine giving them immediate and full rights to live and work within its territory, keeps donating billions of dollars worth of goods to keep Ukraine going, provides training to Ukrainian military personal and ramped up its military production specifically to bolster Ukraine.
How has Europe failed here? Did you expect Poland to start shooting missiles towards Moscow, or something else?
If the US wasn't around, Russia would likely be rolling around most of Eastern Europe today. From 2022 to 2025, America and Europe went dollar for dollar in support of Ukraine. And many of the Euro dollars went to purchasing weapons and defense from the US.
Euro leaders are terrified by this. Europe, which is supposed to have global parity with the big players, was just as much (maybe even more) of a paper tiger as Russia. But unlike Russia they have a big friend who has lots of money and lots of weapons.
For the average European who has only ever know life under the protective wing of NATO (read: America), this is just Tuesday. For the versed European leader, who needs to ensure their country can be safe if America goes away, it's totally harrowing. Even more harrowing when your population doesn't understand the need for defense.
><>If the US wasn't around, Russia would likely be rolling around most of Eastern Europe today. From 2022 to 2025
No one is saying otherwise. Still, I don't see how you can describe Europe as failing. Unless, like I complained in my original comment - you see the world as some kind of race where only one country is "winning" and everyone else is losing(failing).
>> America and Europe went dollar for dollar in support of Ukraine. And many of the Euro dollars went to purchasing weapons and defense from the US.
In terms of military spending, yes. In terms of refugees support and civil expenditure, Europe was obviously ahead. And again, this isn't a race to see who can spend more.
>> Even more harrowing when your population doesn't understand the need for defense.
As a Pole, I don't see this sentiment at all - Poland really understands the need to defend itself, with our spending being allocated accordingly - and importantly, new funds are coming with the specific provisions to prevent them being spent on American technology.
>> of NATO (read: America)
Obviously, America has the largest fighting force on the planet. But are we just going to pretend that UK, France and Germany don't have capable armies which would be capable of defending our eastern flank if needed, including with nuclear deterrent? I know Americans are being fed the stories of NATO being entirely US and no one else, but obviously even cursory inspection shows that this isn't true?
> America [...] needs to make friends with all of its former allies. And it needs to import PhD students.
America, in the form of the Trump administration and a Trump-subservient Congress, just spent the last year completely destroying trust on these issues and it would take decades of sustained effort to rebuild it.
>>Edit 3: What I'm saying is that these tailwinds might put America back into the position it was in post-WWII. Manufacturing, tech, and science powerhouse in all the places that matter. Peers a generation or two behind. That's literally where America was after the war, and it looks like we could be teeing up for a repeat if it all doesn't unravel first.
Let us know when Trump is finished sacking the ivory towers these imported PhD students are supposed to land at.
The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....
GDP is a measure of economic activity, and goes up when people are forced to rebuild after natural disasters etc.
%Debt to GDP excluding military pay and allowances indicates how your grandchildren will live. Above >130% they will be poor, and remain poor indefinitely. You may disagree, but it is not like anyone wants this to happen.
The economic conservatives were compromised, and went insane =3
I wish it were easier to measure well-being. Someone who works 20 hours a week and half has as much money may well be enjoying life more than someone working 40 hours a week, but we don't quantify this well.
When I lived in California I was always weirded out by colleagues talking about how they never took vacations. It's like bragging about being poor.
Generally, there is a fundamental philosophical difference between currency and wealth. In silicon valley, a middle class life is well over >$180k/yr, as Rent-seeking economics is unsustainable.
Rule #23: Don't compete to be at the bottom, as you just might actually win.
Have a glorious day =3
The ikigai chart helps some highlight better options:
It may be unreliable to you. I see the life of most people around me getting better. Even people that are somewhat poor (not dirt poor, but free lunch poor) have homes, three squares and snacks, PS5, mobile phones with cellular data, and cable tv. The biggest life issues I see are usually strongly related to substance abuse and mental health.
Transplanting to even just the 80s would be a culture shock for most people.
There is huge variation in what the US trend looks like from the ground that varies by region, age, income level, industry, and demographic.
EI think if you’re a professional class baby boomer the trajectory has looked fantastic through your life.
If you’re a 35 middle income living on the coasts (where at least 100 million Americans live) you may have watched affordability collapse and QOL decease significantly over the last decade.
I honestly think that the idea that this is what’s happening is almost entirely propaganda.
I think people have an overly
rosy view of the past and an overly negative view of the present. What has changed more than anything is we all have the 24/7 instantaneous news cycle, and algorithmic propaganda delivery.
Every election year zillion of dollars get spent convincing you the country went to hell in a handbasket because of the other party.
Which is not to say there are not issues, or even some new ones, but I don’t think the present is significantly worse than the past in many ways, and it is significantly better in several
This is overly optimistic and a "it hasn't happened to me yet so who cares" view. World War 3 has started and DHS is killing Americans and rounding up people in the street because one side was able to convince the country that the only thing to do was destroy and hurt a lot of people including themselves. That's not better than my past and it is significantly worse in a lot of ways. I haven't even received a cost of living increase in my salary in the last 5 years, let alone watch things and places I enjoy in life be dismantled so someone can make money off the attainment of bread.
We were speaking about economics. But I’m sorry anybody who thinks World War III has started has had their brain warped by propaganda even worse. You probably didn’t mean to illustrate my point but you did perfectly.
World wars happened when large numbers of countries had mutual aid agreements that were triggered. Those largely don’t exist anymore outside of NATO. See how literally nobody is putting troops on the ground to defend Iran, Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, etc. If world war war risk existed, the nukes would already be flying and we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
The propaganda I’m talking about is very clear in your comment, you can’t just say some things suck, and there are things you don’t like, it has to be the most extreme version. We can’t just be involved in a couple wars we shouldn’t, it has to be World War III. Trump can’t just be a terrible president. He has to be Hitler. The DHS has killed three people, which is terrible, but it’s pretty far from the gestapo. That extremeism is exactly what I’m talking about.
I’m sorry your income has not increased in the last five years, but that is not the average Americans experience. The plural of anecdote is not data.
I will start by stating that none of the media landscape is referring to it as World War 3. That is a conclusion I made myself.
Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be so everything else that doesn’t directly affect me is propaganda and all the problems right now in the world are perfectly fine” is the ultimate propaganda. You’re essentially saying “shut up you’re still alive just be okay with the world state even if it’s not desireable”.
You are definitely a maroon. Especially in the way you are talking down and hand waving away my complaints and taking my brief list as the only things that I have an issue with.
The propaganda isn't extreme in mainstream media, it's extreme on social media, subreddits, etc. I am sure the NYT knows WW3 has not begun. I'll happily wager anything you want that it has not if we can define it. You definitely did not come to that conclusion without help, and the fact that you came to it is forgiveable (not everyone is a student of history).
"Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be so everything else that doesn’t directly affect me is propaganda and all the problems right now in the world are perfectly fine” is the ultimate propaganda. You’re essentially saying “shut up you’re still alive just be okay with the world state even if it’s not desireable”."
I didn't say any of that or anything vaguely similar. Merely the idea that the economy is getting better while the life of the average American is getting worse is mostly propaganda. (It's certainly true in some ways for many and many ways for some, propaganda works best when it's rooted in something true and obvious.)
You know I am sure that Russia and other adversarial nations have millions of people and bots trying to make you hate your country. If you were them, wouldn't that be your main message? Your country is going to hell in a handbasket. You'd have a hard time finding a country where a whole lot of people would disagree.
Great empires fall from the inside. The thing that scares me more about the future than anything is just how good our enemies have gotten at stuffing our heads with distrust and fear of our own country and the people in it. There's no way I could tell you that you're patient zero (or in this case, I guess patient 100 million) that you would be happy about, but there it is.
I dont hate my country, just a few electeds running it. I do not spend time on social media and I read a variety of news sources. I’m not really sure what your point is other than to label everything propaganda that sounds negative. I can’t be unhappy with aspects of my country and express it otherwise I’m some kind of robot to propaganda. I’m not sure about you but I have organized people for protests and participated in real local change. I honestly do not understand what makes you happy in being an optimist-defeatist. Perhaps best to stop here.
Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting.
The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses.
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